A B C
Z. Naturforsch. 69a, 635 – 644 (2014)
doi:10.5560/ZNA.2014-0053
The Ordered Network Structure and Prediction Summary for M ≥ 7 Earthquakes in Xinjiang Region of China
Ke-Pei Men and Kai Zhao
College of Mathematics and Statistics, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
Received April 3, 2014 / revised July 7, 2014 / published online September 10, 2014
Reprint requests to: K.-P. M.; E-mail: menkepei@163.com
M ≥ 7 earthquakes have showed an obvious commensurability and orderliness in Xinjiang of China and its adjacent region since 1800. The main orderly values are 30 a × k (k = 1, 2, 3), 11 ∼12  a, 41 ∼43  a, 18 ∼19  a, and 5 ∼6  a. In the guidance of the information forecasting theory of Wen-Bo Weng, based on previous research results, combining ordered network structure analysis with complex network technology, we focus on the prediction summary of M ≥ 7 earthquakes by using the ordered network structure, and add new information to further optimize network, hence construct the 2D- and 3D-ordered network structure of M ≥ 7 earthquakes. In this paper, the network structure revealed fully the regularity of seismic activity of M ≥ 7 earthquakes in the study region during the past 210 years. Based on this, the Karakorum M7.1 earthquake in 1996, the M7.9 earthquake on the frontier of Russia, Mongol, and China in 2003, and two Yutian M7.3 earthquakes in 2008 and 2014 were predicted successfully. At the same time, a new prediction opinion is presented that the future two M ≥ 7 earthquakes will probably occur around 2019–2020 and 2025–2026 in this region. The results show that large earthquake occurred in defined region can be predicted. The method of ordered network structure analysis produces satisfactory results for the mid-and-long term prediction of M ≥ 7 earthquakes.
Key words: Xinjiang of China and its Adjacent Region; Imformational Ordered Network Structure; 2014 Yutian M7.3 Earthquake; 2008 Yutian M7.3 Earthquake; M ≥ 7 Earthquake Prediction.
Full-text PDF