Z. Naturforsch. 68a, 766 – 772 (2013)
The Ordered Network Structure and its Prediction for the Big Floods of the Changjiang River Basins
Ke-Pei Men, Kai Zhao, and Shu-Dan Zhu
College of Mathematics & Statistics, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
Received May 10, 2013 / revised August 9, 2013 / published online October 16, 2013
Reprint requests to: K.-P. M.; E-mail: menkepei@gmail.com
According to the latest statistical data of hydrology, a total of 21 floods took place over the Changjiang (Yangtze) River Basins from 1827 to 2012 and showed an obvious commensurable orderliness. In the guidance of the information forecasting theory of Wen-Bo Weng, based on previous research results, combining ordered analysis with complex network technology, we focus on the summary of the ordered network structure of the Changjiang floods, supplement new information, further optimize networks, construct the 2D- and 3D-ordered network structure and make prediction research. Predictions show that the future big deluges will probably occur over the Changjiang River Basin around 2013–2014, 2020–2021, 2030, 2036, 2051, and 2058.
Key words: The Changjiang River Basin; Informational Ordered Network Structure; Prediction of Big Flood.
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