Z. Naturforsch. 68a, 371 – 379 (2013)
The Ordered Network Structure of M ≥ 6 Strong Earthquakes and Its Prediction in the Jiangsu–South Yellow Sea Region
Ke-Pei Men1 and Lei Cui2
1 College of Mathematics & Statistics, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
2 Applied Probability and Statistics Department, University of California, Santa Barbara, 93106, USA
Received September 3, 2012 / revised November 29, 2012 / published online February 20, 2013
Reprint requests to: K.-P. M.; E-mail: menkepei@gmail.com
The the Jiangsu–South Yellow Sea region is one of the key seismic monitoring defence areas in the eastern part of China. Since 1846, M ≥ 6 strong earthquakes have showed an obvious commensurability and orderliness in this region. The main orderly values are 74 ∼ 75 a, 57 ∼ 58 a, 11 ∼ 12 a, and 5 ∼ 6 a, wherein 74 ∼ 75 a and 57 ∼ 58 a with an outstanding predictive role. According to the information prediction theory of Wen-Bo Weng, we conceived the M ≥ 6 strong earthquake ordered network structure in the South Yellow Sea and the whole region. Based on this, we analyzed and discussed the variation of seismicity in detail and also made a trend prediction of M ≥ 6 strong earthquakes in the future. The results showed that since 1998 it has entered into a new quiet episode which may continue until about 2042; and the first M ≥ 6 strong earthquake in the next active episode will probably occur in 2053 pre and post, with the location likely in the sea area of the South Yellow Sea; also, the second and the third ones or strong earthquake swarm in the future will probably occur in 2058 and 2070 pre and post.
Key words: Jiangsu-South Yellow Sea Region; Division of Seismic Period; Strong Earthquake Chains; Imformational Ordered Network Structure; Strong Earthquake Prediction.
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