Research on Prediction of Three Great Earthquakes During the Beginning of the 21st Century in the Northern Xizang Plateau

The northern Xizang Plateau is a main seismic zone in West China. Since 1700, M ≥ 7 earthquakes have had an obvious commensurability and orderliness in this region. The main ordered values are 106 ~ 107a, 77 ~ 78a, 53 ~ 54a, 26 ~ 27a, 11 ~ 12a, and 3 ~ 4a. According to the information forecasting theory of Wen-Bo Weng (W. B. Weng, Fundamentals of Forecasting Theory. Petroleum Industry Press, Beijing 1984 (in Chinese)), combining ordered analysis with complex network technology, we try to explore the practical method for M ≥ 7 earthquake prediction with Chinese characteristics, and build a informational ordered network structure of M ≥ 7 earthquakes in the northern Xizang Plateau. In this paper, we study the prediction of three great earthquakes (the 2001 Kunlunshan M8.1, the 2008 Wenchuan M8.0, and the 2010 M7.1 Yushu earthquake) during the beginning of the 21st century based on the method of ordered network structure, and give many famous earthquake examples in China and abroad. Meanwhile, the cause of formation about the Wenchuan and Yushu earthquake has been discussed primarily. At last, we present some new prediction opinions: the future M ≥ 7 earthquakes will happen in 2014–2015, 2026–2027, and 2030 pre and post in this region. The results show that this method has a unique effect on moderate term and long term prediction for great earthquakes.